Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a capability enabled by current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
