Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
